Doomsday Roundtable: Dallas Is Supposed to Win This One. So What Would a Good Win Look Like?

There are games on an NFL schedule that arrive carrying their own importance. Division games. Rivalries. Games against contenders. Games that might still matter when December arrives.

And then there are games like Thursday night.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers arrive at AT&T Stadium 0–4, without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield and with an undrafted rookie making his second NFL start. The Cowboys are 2–2, playing at home and coming off a 34–30 comeback victory over Houston.

On paper, Dallas should win.

That doesn't necessarily make Thursday easier.

Sometimes it makes the questions afterward harder.

So instead of asking the usual Roundtable question — Will the Cowboys beat Tampa Bay? — we asked something slightly different.

If Dallas really is becoming the team it wants to be, what should a good win over Tampa Bay actually look like?

Jesse Worrell: I don't think we're asking them to win 45–10.

Marty Gaines: I wouldn't object.

Gabby Whitfield: We haven't even started.

Marty: I'm establishing expectations.

Jesse: Apparently.

But that's kind of the point. There's a difference between saying Dallas should win and saying anything short of a blowout is a disappointment.

Tampa Bay is 0–4, but they've lost those four games by a combined 20 points. Every one has been decided by seven points or fewer.

Theo Marsh: Which is why the record is probably the least interesting thing about them.

People see 0–4 and mentally turn this into a bad football team. I'm not sure that's accurate.

The offense is obviously compromised without Mayfield. But the defense is good.

So if the standard is Dallas scores on the first four possessions and everybody goes home early, we may be creating a test that doesn't tell us much.

Julian Vance: But there is still a test.

Dallas has the better quarterback. They're at home. Tampa is missing Mayfield. They're missing important defensive players. It's a short week for everybody.

At some point you have to say: Okay. You're the better team tonight. Play like it.

Marty: Thank you.

Gabby: He's been waiting for somebody to say that.

Marty: Because apparently we've reached a point where saying the better team should play better is considered analysis.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers: The Difference Between Winning and Controlling

Dallas' victory in Houston was valuable precisely because it wasn't easy.

The Cowboys trailed, struggled through stretches of the first half and still found a way to come back. Dak Prescott finished with 335 passing yards. CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards, and Prescott found him for the winning touchdown with 40 seconds remaining.

There was plenty to like about the response.

But Thursday is where that becomes interesting.

Gabby: Houston showed me that Dallas can survive a game when things go wrong.

I don't need them to show me that again Thursday.

I'd rather see whether they can prevent the game from becoming that in the first place.

Jesse: That's probably where I am.

There's a difference between adversity finding you and constantly creating your own adversity.

Against Houston, I loved the response. But I don't want to spend Thursday night praising another heroic fourth-quarter escape from a team that entered the game winless.

Theo: Although I want to be careful with that.

Let's say Tampa's defense plays well, Dallas leads 17–10 going into the fourth quarter, and the Cowboys finish it 24–10.

That's a good win.

It may not be exciting. It may not produce three days of highlight clips. But if Dallas controls the game, doesn't turn the ball over and eventually separates, I'm not going to complain because it wasn't 35–7 at halftime.

Marty: Neither am I.

But you just used the word I care about.

Controls.

Good teams control games they're supposed to control.

That doesn't mean the other team never scores. It doesn't mean you're never behind. It means you don't spend the entire night looking like you're one mistake away from disaster.

There's a difference.

Don't Make the Rookie Comfortable

Tampa Bay's situation at quarterback changes the conversation.

Jalon Daniels directed two touchdown drives against Green Bay last week, but he also threw two interceptions in Tampa Bay's 17–14 loss. Thursday will be his first NFL road start.

That presents Dallas with an opportunity.

And maybe an obligation.

Julian: This is probably the part I'm watching closest.

I don't think Dallas needs to invent anything.

Don't give him easy throws all night. Don't let Tampa stay ahead of the chains. Get them into obvious passing situations and make a rookie quarterback process what's happening.

If Daniels beats you repeatedly from third-and-long, tip your cap.

But don't give Tampa eight-yard runs on first down and let them protect him.

Jesse: Especially because we've already spent enough time talking about the Dallas run defense.

Theo: That's actually the danger to me.

When you're playing a rookie quarterback, everybody immediately starts talking about pressure and sacks.

But Tampa's job is going to be making sure Daniels doesn't have to carry the offense.

If they can run the ball, shorten third down and keep the score close, suddenly you're not testing the rookie anymore.

You're letting Tampa play exactly the game it wants.

Marty: Which is how you turn somebody else's problem into your problem.

Gabby: That's annoyingly concise.

Marty: I've had practice.

Dallas doesn't need Daniels to look overwhelmed.

It needs to make him responsible for beating them.

There's a difference.

And Then There's the Other Quarterback

There shouldn't be much mystery about what Dallas has at quarterback right now.

Prescott just produced another game-winning drive. Against Houston, when Dallas got the football back down three with 2:15 remaining, he led an 11-play, 74-yard touchdown drive.

That was the quarterback Dallas needed Sunday.

Thursday presents another test entirely.

Gabby: I actually don't think Dak needs to be spectacular.

Julian: Agreed.

Gabby: That's what I'm interested in.

We spend so much time judging quarterbacks by whether they can rescue a game. What about the games where the best thing the quarterback can do is never require rescuing?

Jesse: Take what's there. Don't give Tampa extra possessions. If you get a short field, turn it into points.

Theo: And be patient.

Tampa's defense is the strength of the team. If they're going to make Dallas earn drives, earn them.

The mistake would be deciding before kickoff that because they're 0–4 and missing players, every possession should produce an explosive play.

Marty: I'll make it even simpler.

If you're the veteran quarterback playing at home against the rookie quarterback making his first road start, make sure the difference looks like a difference.

That's it.

Does Dallas Need to Put Somebody Away?

That may be the uncomfortable part of this game.

The Cowboys have already demonstrated that they can live dangerously.

Now we'd like to know whether they can live normally.

Jesse: Here's my standard.

I don't care if Tampa scores first.

I don't care if it's tied at halftime.

But somewhere during the second half, if Dallas is the better team, I want to see the game begin leaning unmistakably toward Dallas.

Not because Tampa hands it over.

Because Dallas takes control of it.

Julian: That's important.

A 27–17 game can be much more convincing than a 34–30 game, even though the margin isn't enormous.

How did you get there?

Did the offense sustain drives?

Did the defense get off the field?

Did you protect the football?

When you had the chance to turn a seven-point lead into a two-score lead, did you do it?

That's what I'd call progress.

Gabby: Mine is even less statistical.

At some point Thursday night, I want to stop worrying.

Marty: That's asking a lot from a Cowboys fan.

Gabby: I'm serious.

Think about how many games we watch where you're technically ahead, but nobody watching feels like you're actually in control.

I want one of those games where, sometime in the fourth quarter, you realize Tampa needs several things to go right just to get back into it.

Theo: That's a good definition.

Not domination.

Separation.

The Trap Inside the "Trap Game"

Calling this a trap game is almost too easy.

Tampa Bay is winless. Dallas is coming off an emotional comeback. The Cowboys have difficult games waiting beyond Thursday.

You can write the cliché yourself.

But maybe the more important danger isn't Dallas overlooking Tampa Bay.

Maybe it's Dallas misunderstanding what Thursday is supposed to prove.

Theo: One win doesn't establish anything permanent.

If Dallas wins Thursday and gets to 3–2, that's good.

But I'm not ready to declare that they've arrived because they beat two winless teams in five days.

Marty: Nobody asked you to.

Theo: I'm heading you off.

Marty: I wasn't going there.

Gabby: You were absolutely going there.

Marty: I was going to say 3–2 is better than 2–3.

Jesse: Hard to argue with the math.

But Theo's point matters.

Thursday isn't a referendum on whether Dallas is a contender.

It's a smaller question.

Can you handle favorable circumstances like a mature football team?

That's worth learning.

So What Does a Good Win Look Like?

Nobody at the table demanded 40 points.

Nobody required a shutout.

Marty was disappointed.

But eventually there was something close to agreement.

A good win Thursday night looks like Dallas understanding the situation without becoming casual about it.

It looks like Dak Prescott playing like the veteran quarterback in the building.

It looks like the defense refusing to make life comfortable for Jalon Daniels.

It looks like Dallas avoiding the turnovers, penalties and breakdowns that allow an undermanned opponent to believe for three hours that an upset is waiting for them.

And most importantly, it looks like finishing.

The Cowboys proved something in Houston when they climbed out of trouble.

Thursday offers them the chance to prove something different.

That they don't always have to climb out of it.

Marty: I'll still take 45–10.

Gabby: We know, Marty.

Marty: Just wanted that in the official record.

Dallas and Tampa Bay kick off Thursday night at AT&T Stadium.

And for once, the question isn't whether the Cowboys can survive another wild one.

It's whether they can make sure one never develops.